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Houston AstrosHunter Brown
#58 · P · 6-2 · 220 lb · 19 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 6.3 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 14/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency39argues against it
Projection
7.6 K
L5 8.8 · L10 7.0 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 8.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 18/19 | ||
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 6.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 32% | 6/19 | ||
| 21% | 4/19 | ||
| 16% | 3/19 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home58%7/12Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%9/18Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Hunter Brown has gone over 6.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Daikin Park · Houston Astros
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.