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St. Louis CardinalsHunter Dobbins
#40 · P · 6-2 · 185 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Aug 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.5 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cool underFireFactor 46/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency74supports it
Projection
4.4 K
L5 4.4 · L10 4.5 · med 4.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 4.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 4.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 8 games, Hunter Dobbins has gone over 4.5 K 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Busch Stadium · St. Louis Cardinals
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 3.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 57.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 42.3%
Best Over
BetRivers-159
-6.0% EV
Best Under
FanDuel+124
-5.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-15.3%
Our model puts the over at 42.4% vs the market's no-vig 57.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.