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Colorado RockiesHunter Goodman
#15 · C · 5-11 · 220 lb · 100 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsHot overFireFactor 61/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)87supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.9 H(×1.12 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season100 games
63%over
63 over · 37 under
High confidence95% CI 53%–72%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 63% | 63/100 | |
| 25% | 25/100 | ||
| 7% | 7/100 | ||
| 3% | 3/100 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home61%30/49Medium
Away65%33/51Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)63%44/70High
1 day65%17/26Medium
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — @ STL
Aug 8, 2026
6thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
STL pitching allows 8.6 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Hunter Goodman has gone over 0.5 H 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 63% across the full season. STL has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 6th-most H of 30 teams (8.6 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Coors Field · Colorado Rockies
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.20, HR ×1.16)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.