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Chicago CubsHunter Harvey
#45 · P · 6-3 · 233 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Apr 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListHunter Harvey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Triceps Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 20, 2026
Harvey initially landed on the injured list April 12 due to right triceps inflammation, then suffered a setback in early May, when he was diagnosed with a stress reaction near his triceps and shoulder. After an extended shutdown period, the 31-year-old is beginning to ramp up again, but the Cubs are likely to ease him along cautiously in his throwing program. He's likely at least a month away from rejoining the Chicago bullpen, and a clearer target date probably won't be available until he heads out on a rehab assignment.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 K
L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.8
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 4 games, Hunter Harvey has gone over 0.5 K 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.