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Detroit TigersJack Flaherty
#9 · P · 6-4 · 225 lb · 19 games
Stats updated: Jul 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJack Flaherty isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Forearm Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
Flaherty made a rehab start last Sunday with Triple-A Toledo, throwing 19 pitches over 1.1 scoreless innings. He will get stretched out a bit more Saturday and could rejoin the Tigers rotation next week, though he likely wouldn't be prepared for a full workload. Flaherty has been shelved since late July due to right forearm flexor inflammation.
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
5.3 K
L5 5.0 · L10 5.8 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.6 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16/19 | ||
| 79% | 15/19 | ||
| 58% | 11/19 | ||
| 5.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 32% | 6/19 | ||
| 16% | 3/19 | ||
| 16% | 3/19 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home78%7/9Low
Away30%3/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%10/18Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Wenceel Pérez out · Left Orbital Fracture-0.9 K when he sits
Without (8g)
4.9 K
50% over 5.5
With (11g)
5.7 K
55% over 5.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jack Flaherty has gone over 5.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.