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Texas RangersJack Leiter
#22 · P · 6-1 · 205 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jun 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.5 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJack Leiter isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Ankle Surgery
- Est. return:
- Sep 15, 2026
Leiter underwent surgery one month ago to remove a loose body from his right ankle region. He resumed mound work over the All-Star break and will try throwing with more effort this weekend. If that goes well, Leiter can get the go-ahead to continue a throwing progression. The Rangers have not revealed a timeline for the righty, but he is several weeks away from a return.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
4.8 K
L5 4.6 · L10 5.4 · med 4.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.8 · ceil 8.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 93% | 14/15 | ||
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 4.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 27% | 4/15 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jack Leiter has gone over 4.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Globe Life Field · Texas Rangers
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.