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Detroit TigersJackson Jobe
#21 · P · 6-2 · 190 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cool underFireFactor 22/100· model 38% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency34argues against it
Projection
6.2 K
L5 6.4 · L10 5.4 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 7.6
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 4.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 8 games, Jackson Jobe has gone over 4.5 K 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.