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AthleticsJacob Wilson
#5 · SS · 6-2 · 190 lb · 78 games
Stats updated: Aug 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJacob Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Surgery
- Est. return:
- Mar 1, 2027
Additionally, Wilson was administered a PRP injection Tuesday to combat patellar tendinitis in his right knee. Wilson first injured his shoulder back in early May, and he was ultimately limited to just 80 games in an injury-shortened 2026 campaign. The shortstop could be ready for Opening Day, though he is likely to be slow-played during spring training.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.9 H(×1.08 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2020 games
15%over
3 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 5%–36%Season78 games
33%over
26 over · 52 under
High confidence95% CI 24%–44%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 56/78 | ||
| 1.5Current | 33% | 26/78 | |
| 3% | 2/78 | ||
| 0% | 0/78 | ||
| 0% | 0/78 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home32%12/37Medium
Away34%14/41Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)40%25/62High
1 day10%1/10Medium
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days0%0/4Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Tyler Soderstrom out · Left Hip Surgery
Without (6g)
1.0 H
33% over 1.5
With (72g)
1.1 H
33% over 1.5
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer out · Not Specified Groin Surgery-0.5 H when he sits
Without (68g)
1.0 H
29% over 1.5
With (10g)
1.5 H
60% over 1.5
Next matchup — vs LAA
Sep 22, 2026
20thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
LAA pitching allows 7.9 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jacob Wilson has gone over 1.5 H 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 33% across the full season. LAA has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 20th-most H of 30 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Sutter Health Park · Athletics
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.