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Miami MarlinsJakob Marsee
#87 · CF · 6-0 · 180 lb · 142 games
Stats updated: Sep 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.8 HSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJakob Marsee isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Apr 1, 2027
After playing with some discomfort down the stretch of the regular season, Marsee had his elbow examined before opting for surgery. He is expected to be game-ready in six months, putting his status for Opening Day in question. Marsee put together a .231/.348/.359 batting line with 11 home runs and 23 stolen bases this season for the Marlins.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 H(×0.91 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season142 games
55%over
78 over · 64 under
High confidence95% CI 47%–63%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 55% | 78/142 | |
| 20% | 28/142 | ||
| 6% | 8/142 | ||
| 1% | 2/142 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%40/71High
Away54%38/71High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)53%58/109High
1 day62%16/26Medium
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — vs ATL
Sep 26, 2026
25thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
ATL pitching allows 7.8 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 162 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jakob Marsee has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 25th-most H of 30 teams (7.8 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
loanDepot park · Miami Marlins
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.94, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.