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Washington NationalsJames Wood Stolen Bases
Stats updated: Aug 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
James Wood has gone over 0.5 SB in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Linepays more
Stolen Bases · season avg 0.1 SB · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Day-to-dayDay-to-dayConfirm James Wood's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Side Soreness
On his last swing, Wood hurt his left side in the sixth inning. The 23-year-old tried to take a couple of swings, but didn't feel comfortable playing the rest of the game. Dylan Crews replaced Wood as a defensive substitution in the bottom of the eighth inning.
Verdict
vs 0.5 SBStolen BasesNo readFireFactor 2/100· model 13% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line22argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.1 SB(×0.99 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
10%over
2 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 3%–30%Season114 games
14%over
16 over · 98 under
High confidence95% CI 9%–22%Alternate lines — Stolen Bases (SB)
SB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 14% | 16/114 | |
| 1% | 1/114 | ||
| 0% | 0/114 | ||
| 0% | 0/114 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home11%6/57High
Away18%10/57High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)16%16/99High
1 day0%0/13High
3+ days0%0/1Low
With a teammate out
How this SB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Curtis Mead out · Left Wrist Fracture-0.1 SB when he sits
Without (26g)
0.0 SB
4% over 0.5
With (88g)
0.2 SB
17% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs CIN
Aug 7, 2026
1stof 30 in SB allowed to hitters
CIN pitching allows 0.9 SB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 114 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, James Wood has gone over 0.5 SB 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 14% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 1st-most SB of 30 teams (0.9 per game). His game-to-game SB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Nationals Park · Washington Nationals
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 0.5 SB- No-vig fair (over)
- 20.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 79.2%
Best Under
BetMGM-525
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-7.3%
Our model puts the over at 13.5% vs the market's no-vig 20.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Stolen Bases (SB)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 SB). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 14%.
More James Wood research
James Wood — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Wood Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Wood Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Wood RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Wood Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.