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San Diego PadresJason Adam
#40 · P · 6-3 · 229 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Jun 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJason Adam isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
Adam threw a bullpen session Sept. 7 and faced hitters in Arizona on Sept. 10, setting him up to potentially join El Paso in the coming days. The veteran reliever last pitched for the Padres on June 29, so he may need a couple outings in the minors before rejoining the big-league bullpen. Still, Adam doesn't seem to be far off from full clearance and could be back with San Diego within the next week.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.6 K(×0.92 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season36 games
44%over
16 over · 20 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–60%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 44% | 16/36 | |
| 11% | 4/36 | ||
| 6% | 2/36 | ||
| 0% | 0/36 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home37%7/19Medium
Away53%9/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%6/8Low
1 day50%8/16Medium
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days14%1/7Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ramón Laureano out · Right Hip Surgery+0.5 K when he sits
Without (17g)
0.9 K
53% over 0.5
With (19g)
0.4 K
37% over 0.5
Miguel Andujar out · Right Wrist Fracture+0.1 K when he sits
Without (10g)
0.7 K
40% over 0.5
With (26g)
0.6 K
46% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jason Adam has gone over 0.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.