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AthleticsJeffrey Springs
#59 · P · 6-3 · 218 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Jul 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 7/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
2.9 K
L5 2.0 · L10 3.1 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.2 · ceil 5.8
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season22 games
59%over
13 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–77%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 21/22 | ||
| 95% | 21/22 | ||
| 77% | 17/22 | ||
| 3.5Current | 59% | 13/22 | |
| 36% | 8/22 | ||
| 23% | 5/22 | ||
| 14% | 3/22 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%8/12Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days62%13/21Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Shea Langeliers out · Right Knee Surgery-0.9 K when he sits
Without (6g)
3.3 K
50% over 3.5
With (16g)
4.3 K
63% over 3.5
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer out · Not Specified Groin Surgery+1.5 K when he sits
Without (19g)
4.2 K
63% over 3.5
With (3g)
2.7 K
33% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jeffrey Springs has gone over 3.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 59% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Sutter Health Park · Athletics
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
- Underdogline 4.5over rate 36%edge 0
- Sleeperline 4.5over rate 36%edge 0
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.