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Philadelphia PhilliesJesús Luzardo
#44 · P · 6-0 · 218 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Sep 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Peru
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 7.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJesús Luzardo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Sep 29, 2026
Luzardo was shut down for nine days due to left shoulder inflammation, but he was cleared to play catch after the stiffness dissipated and he regained range of motion in the shoulder. The left-hander will not return from the 15-day injured list before the end of the regular season, but the Phillies are "very optimistic" about Luzardo's progress, per president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. If Luzardo is ready for the wild card round, the Phillies could use him in a relief role since he won't have his stamina rebuilt yet.
Verdict
vs 7.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency40neutral
Projection
8.7 K
L5 9.0 · L10 8.5 · med 9.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.6 · ceil 9.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season29 games
52%over
15 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–69%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 25/29 | ||
| 79% | 23/29 | ||
| 62% | 18/29 | ||
| 7.5Current | 52% | 15/29 | |
| 41% | 12/29 | ||
| 21% | 6/29 | ||
| 17% | 5/29 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%7/14Low
Away53%8/15Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%15/28Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Felix Reyes out · Right Wrist Fracture+2.2 K when he sits
Without (26g)
7.8 K
54% over 7.5
With (3g)
5.7 K
33% over 7.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jesús Luzardo has gone over 7.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 52% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies
neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.