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Texas RangersJoc Pederson
#3 · DH · 6-1 · 220 lb · 116 games
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJoc Pederson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hand Fracture
- Est. return:
- Sep 29, 2026
The veteran left-handed-hitting Pederson will head to the 10-day IL, effectively ending to his season. Pederson has not played since Sept. 12 because of soreness in his fractured left hand. The 34-year-old will end his 2026 campaign holding a slash line of .235/.329/.487 with 26 homers and 53 RBI over 431 plate appearances.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.6 H(×0.82 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season116 games
55%over
64 over · 52 under
High confidence95% CI 46%–64%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 55% | 64/116 | |
| 13% | 15/116 | ||
| 5% | 6/116 | ||
| 1% | 1/116 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home53%31/58High
Away57%33/58High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)58%47/81High
1 day48%10/21Medium
2 days33%3/9Low
3+ days100%4/4Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kyle Higashioka out · Right Forearm Strain-0.2 H when he sits
Without (77g)
0.7 H
53% over 0.5
With (39g)
0.9 H
59% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs NYM
Sep 23, 2026
15thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
NYM pitching allows 8.1 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Joc Pederson has gone over 0.5 H 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. NYM has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 15th-most H of 30 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Globe Life Field · Texas Rangers
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.