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Milwaukee BrewersJoel Kuhnel
#59 · P · 6-5 · 290 lb · 35 games
Stats updated: Jul 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJoel Kuhnel isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Tendinitis
- Est. return:
- Aug 10, 2026
Kuhnel fired 13 of his 17 pitches for strikes in the rehab outing, his first appearance at any level since July 2 following his placement on the 15-day injured list due to right rotator cuff tendinopathy. Though Kuhnel pounded the strike zone, batters were able to easily square up on him, as all three hits he allowed went for extra bases (one home run, two doubles). The right-hander will need to show improved results over his next few rehab appearances before rejoining the Milwaukee bullpen.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.5 K
L5 0.4 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season35 games
43%over
15 over · 20 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–59%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 43% | 15/35 | |
| 14% | 5/35 | ||
| 3% | 1/35 | ||
| 3% | 1/35 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home47%8/17Medium
Away39%7/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)57%4/7Low
1 day25%3/12Medium
2 days43%3/7Low
3+ days63%5/8Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Joel Kuhnel has gone over 0.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 43% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
American Family Field · Milwaukee Brewers
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.