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Boston Red SoxJohan Oviedo
#29 · P · 6-6 · 275 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Mar 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Cuba
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJohan Oviedo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 4, 2026
Oviedo has been shelved since April 3 due to a right flexor strain and remains on the 60-day injured list. He's likely still several weeks away from returning to the mound for Boston should his throwing program go off without any hitches.
Verdict
vs 2.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
3.0 K
L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 3.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 2.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away100%1/1Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 1 games, Johan Oviedo has gone over 2.5 K 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.