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New York MetsJonah Tong
#21 · P · 6-1 · 180 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Jun 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Canada
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.3 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Warm overFireFactor 44/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency11argues against it
Projection
2.4 K
L5 2.3 · L10 2.3 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.4 · ceil 3.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 1.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 3 games, Jonah Tong has gone over 1.5 K 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citi Field · New York Mets
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.