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Houston AstrosJorge Barrosa
#14 · CF · 5-6 · 175 lb · 41 games
Stats updated: Sep 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.6 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 40% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)49neutral
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.3 H(×0.83 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season41 games
51%over
21 over · 20 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–66%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 51% | 21/41 | |
| 7% | 3/41 | ||
| 0% | 0/41 | ||
| 0% | 0/41 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home48%10/21Medium
Away55%11/20Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)63%10/16Medium
1 day33%2/6Low
2 days0%0/3Low
3+ days53%8/15Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Carlos Correa out · Left Ankle Surgery-0.3 H when he sits
Without (27g)
0.5 H
44% over 0.5
With (14g)
0.8 H
64% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ SEA
Sep 22, 2026
9thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SEA pitching allows 8.4 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jorge Barrosa has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 51% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 9th-most H of 30 teams (8.4 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Daikin Park · Houston Astros
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 51%.