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Atlanta BravesJorge Mateo
#2 · SS · 6-0 · 200 lb · 39 games
Stats updated: Jul 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsCool underFireFactor 28/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.3 H(×0.82 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season39 games
46%over
18 over · 21 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–61%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 46% | 18/39 | |
| 23% | 9/39 | ||
| 3% | 1/39 | ||
| 3% | 1/39 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%6/16Medium
Away52%12/23Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%10/15Medium
1 day14%1/7Low
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — vs MIA
Aug 5, 2026
27thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIA pitching allows 7.6 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 113 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jorge Mateo has gone over 0.5 H 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 46% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 27th-most H of 30 teams (7.6 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Truist Park · Atlanta Braves
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.01)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.