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Cincinnati RedsJulian Garcia
#57 · P · 6-3 · 206 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Sep 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJulian Garcia isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
It's unclear whether Garcia will need surgery, but even if he doesn't his season is officially over. The 31-year-old has had a nice rookie season out of the Reds' bullpen, logging a 3.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 41:19 K:BB over 46 frames.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 K
L5 0.6 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season33 games
33%over
11 over · 22 under
Medium confidence95% CI 20%–50%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 24/33 | ||
| 1.5Current | 33% | 11/33 | |
| 15% | 5/33 | ||
| 3% | 1/33 | ||
| 0% | 0/33 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%5/17Medium
Away38%6/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/8Medium
1 day43%3/7Low
2 days40%4/10Low
3+ days43%3/7Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Spencer Steer out · Right Wrist Sprain+0.2 K when he sits
Without (25g)
1.3 K
32% over 1.5
With (8g)
1.1 K
38% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Julian Garcia has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 33% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati Reds
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.05, HR ×1.18)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.