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Boston Red SoxJustin Slaten
#63 · P · 6-4 · 222 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Aug 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJustin Slaten isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Slaten received a PRP injection to address degenerative changes in his flexor mass, and the recovery time will extend past the end of the season. He'll close the book on 2026 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.37 WHIP to go with a 39:8 K:BB across 31.1 innings. He also recorded a career-high 17 holds.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 K(×1.08 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season36 games
28%over
10 over · 26 under
Medium confidence95% CI 16%–44%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 29/36 | ||
| 1.5Current | 28% | 10/36 | |
| 0% | 0/36 | ||
| 0% | 0/36 | ||
| 0% | 0/36 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home19%3/16Medium
Away35%7/20Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)13%1/8Medium
1 day50%4/8Low
2 days17%1/6Low
3+ days23%3/13Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Anthony Seigler out · Right Wrist Inflammation-0.2 K when he sits
Without (20g)
1.0 K
20% over 1.5
With (16g)
1.2 K
38% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Justin Slaten has gone over 1.5 K 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 28% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 28%.