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AthleticsJustin Sterner
#60 · P · 6-1 · 215 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: Jul 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJustin Sterner isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
After undergoing right knee surgery Friday, Sterner had already been ruled out for the rest of the season. His move to the 60-day injured list is merely procedural, as it opens up a spot on the 40-man roster for waiver pickup Joe Rock. The 29-year-old Sterner logged a 6.12 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 40:13 K:BB over 42.2 innings out of the bullpen before hitting the shelf July 18.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.4 K
L5 0.0 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season46 games
61%over
28 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 46%–74%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 61% | 28/46 | |
| 22% | 10/46 | ||
| 2% | 1/46 | ||
| 2% | 1/46 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%14/22Medium
Away58%14/24Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%6/8Low
1 day61%11/18Medium
2 days58%7/12Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacob Wilson out · Left Shoulder Surgery-0.3 K when he sits
Without (18g)
0.7 K
56% over 0.5
With (28g)
1.0 K
64% over 0.5
Tyler Soderstrom out · Left Hip Surgery-0.3 K when he sits
Without (5g)
0.6 K
40% over 0.5
With (41g)
0.9 K
63% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Justin Sterner has gone over 0.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 61% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Sutter Health Park · Athletics
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 61%.