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AthleticsJustin Sterner
#60 · P · 6-1 · 215 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: Jul 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJustin Sterner isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Soreness
- Est. return:
- Aug 10, 2026
Scott Barlow pitched two-thirds of an inning in Tuesday's series opener against the Cubs, so the A's turned to Justin Sterner for the save in the bottom of the 10th inning Wednesday. This was Sterner's first save of the season, and he needed just 14 pitches (10 strikes) to get the job done. The 29-year-old has been on a roll of late and hasn't allowed a run in each of his last five outings (5.1 innings).
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.4 K
L5 0.0 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season46 games
61%over
28 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 46%–74%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 61% | 28/46 | |
| 22% | 10/46 | ||
| 2% | 1/46 | ||
| 2% | 1/46 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%14/22Medium
Away58%14/24Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%6/8Low
1 day61%11/18Medium
2 days58%7/12Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Shea Langeliers out · Right Knee Surgery-0.5 K when he sits
Without (5g)
0.4 K
40% over 0.5
With (41g)
0.9 K
63% over 0.5
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer out · Not Specified Groin Surgery+0.7 K when he sits
Without (39g)
1.0 K
69% over 0.5
With (7g)
0.3 K
14% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Justin Sterner has gone over 0.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 61% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Sutter Health Park · Athletics
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 61%.