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Detroit TigersKerry Carpenter Home Runs
Stats updated: Jul 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Kerry Carpenter has gone over 0.5 HR in 0 of his last 10 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Home Runs · season avg 0.2 HR · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListKerry Carpenter isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Foot Plantar Fasciitis
- Est. return:
- Aug 6, 2026
The 28-year-old landed on the injured list Monday with left foot plantar fasciitis and didn't waste much time before getting treatment. Plantar fasciitis often carries a lengthy recovery timeline, but it's possible Carpenter's situation is more of an issue of pain tolerance, at least in the short term.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HRHome RunsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 85% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line85supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.1 HR(×0.96 context)
L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
0%over
0 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%Last 2020 games
5%over
1 over · 19 under
High confidence95% CI 1%–24%Season73 games
18%over
13 over · 60 under
High confidence95% CI 11%–28%Alternate lines — Home Runs (HR)
HR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 18% | 13/73 | |
| 0% | 0/73 | ||
| 0% | 0/73 | ||
| 0% | 0/73 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 HR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home22%8/37Medium
Away14%5/36High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)20%10/51High
1 day13%2/16Medium
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days0%0/2Low
With a teammate out
How this HR line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Wenceel Pérez out · Left Orbital Fracture
Without (45g)
0.2 HR
20% over 0.5
With (28g)
0.1 HR
14% over 0.5
Parker Meadows out · Left Arm Surgery
Without (63g)
0.2 HR
17% over 0.5
With (10g)
0.2 HR
20% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ SEA
Aug 6, 2026
20thof 30 in HR allowed to hitters
SEA pitching allows 1.1 HR per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kerry Carpenter has gone over 0.5 HR 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 18% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 20th-most HR of 30 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game HR have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 18%.
More Kerry Carpenter research
Kerry Carpenter — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Carpenter Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Carpenter RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Carpenter Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Carpenter Stolen Bases→
Stolen Bases hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.