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Baltimore OriolesKyle Bradish
#38 · P · 6-3 · 215 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.9 KSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKyle Bradish isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Abdomen Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Bradish has been sidelined since mid-September with the injury and has ultimately decided to have it surgically repaired. More should be known regarding a timetable following the operation, but it should not affect Bradish's availability for the beginning of spring training. The right-hander finished the 2026 season with a 4.12 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 142:70 K:BB over 155 innings covering 29 starts.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
3.8 K
L5 3.6 · L10 3.6 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season29 games
41%over
12 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–59%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 29/29 | ||
| 93% | 27/29 | ||
| 72% | 21/29 | ||
| 4.5Current | 41% | 12/29 | |
| 28% | 8/29 | ||
| 21% | 6/29 | ||
| 10% | 3/29 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%5/13Low
Away44%7/16Medium
Days since last game
3+ days43%12/28Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jackson Holliday out · Left Wrist Surgery+1.5 K when he sits
Without (11g)
5.8 K
55% over 4.5
With (18g)
4.3 K
33% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Bradish has gone over 4.5 K 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 41% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.