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Baltimore OriolesKyle Bradish
#38 · P · 6-3 · 215 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListKyle Bradish isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Abdomen Soreness
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The Orioles placed Bradish on the injured list Sunday with an abdominal issue, ruling him out for the rest of the regular season. Manager Craig Albernaz said Wednesday that the 30-year-old righty is exploring all of his options, but now that he's officially dealing with a hernia, he likely won't be available to pitch in the postseason if the Orioles secure a wild-card spot.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
3.8 K
L5 3.6 · L10 3.6 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season29 games
41%over
12 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–59%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 29/29 | ||
| 93% | 27/29 | ||
| 72% | 21/29 | ||
| 4.5Current | 41% | 12/29 | |
| 28% | 8/29 | ||
| 21% | 6/29 | ||
| 10% | 3/29 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%5/13Low
Away44%7/16Medium
Days since last game
3+ days43%12/28Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jackson Holliday out · Left Wrist Inflammation+1.5 K when he sits
Without (11g)
5.8 K
55% over 4.5
With (18g)
4.3 K
33% over 4.5
Tyler O'Neill out · Right Shoulder Strain-0.8 K when he sits
Without (12g)
4.4 K
42% over 4.5
With (17g)
5.2 K
41% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Bradish has gone over 4.5 K 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 41% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 3.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 53.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 46.1%
Best Over
FanDuel-120
-1.2% EV
Best Under
Caesars+116
-0.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-15.0%
Our model puts the over at 38.9% vs the market's no-vig 53.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.