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Colorado RockiesKyle Freeland
#21 · P · 6-4 · 202 lb · 27 games
Stats updated: Sep 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.0 KSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 7/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency6argues against it
Projection
3.1 K
L5 2.4 · L10 3.8 · med 2.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 5.8
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season27 games
59%over
16 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–75%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 26/27 | ||
| 93% | 25/27 | ||
| 67% | 18/27 | ||
| 3.5Current | 59% | 16/27 | |
| 30% | 8/27 | ||
| 22% | 6/27 | ||
| 19% | 5/27 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home69%9/13Medium
Away50%7/14Low
Days since last game
3+ days62%16/26Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Freeland has gone over 3.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 59% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Coors Field · Colorado Rockies
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.20, HR ×1.16)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.