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Kansas City RoyalsLuinder Avila
#58 · P · 6-3 · 195 lb · 21 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListLuinder Avila isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2028
The 24-year-old was placed on the injured list Sunday due to forearm tightness, but further evaluation apparently revealed a torn UCL. Avila will miss the rest of this year and is also likely to be sidelined for the full 2027 season. He made 21 appearances (12 starts) for Kansas City prior to the injury and had a 5.53 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 61:42 K:BB over 70 innings this season. Avila will likely be shifted to the 60-day injured list in the near future.
Verdict
vs 2.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
3.2 K
L5 3.6 · L10 3.6 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season21 games
48%over
10 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–68%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 20/21 | ||
| 81% | 17/21 | ||
| 2.5Current | 48% | 10/21 | |
| 33% | 7/21 | ||
| 19% | 4/21 | ||
| 10% | 2/21 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away46%6/13Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days53%9/17Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Luinder Avila has gone over 2.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 48% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.