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Kansas City RoyalsLuinder Avila
#58 · P · 6-3 · 195 lb · 21 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.9 KSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLuinder Avila isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2028
Avila is likely to remain sidelined until 2028 after undergoing Tommy John surgery Wednesday, so the Royals will stash him away on the 60-day IL. The move frees up a 40-man roster spot for Luke Little, who was claimed off waivers from the Cubs on Thursday.
Verdict
vs 2.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
3.2 K
L5 3.6 · L10 3.6 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season21 games
48%over
10 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–68%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 20/21 | ||
| 81% | 17/21 | ||
| 2.5Current | 48% | 10/21 | |
| 33% | 7/21 | ||
| 19% | 4/21 | ||
| 10% | 2/21 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away46%6/13Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days53%9/17Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Luinder Avila has gone over 2.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 48% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.