Loading…
Kansas City RoyalsLuinder Avila
#58 · P · 6-3 · 195 lb · 21 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListLuinder Avila isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Forearm Soreness
- Est. return:
- Aug 17, 2026
Avila kept the Rockies out of the scoring column for two frames, but he was knocked around in the bottom of the third. In that inning, Colorado pounced for six runs on five hits and three walks while Avila was on the mound, with the biggest blow being a Hunter Goodman three-run homer. Avila logged his shortest start since a disastrous outing against Houston on June 12 when he gave up eight runs over two-thirds of an inning. Between that start and Saturday's, the right-hander had posted a tolerable 3.82 ERA over seven appearances, but he also had a shaky 1.36 WHIP and 31:17 K:BB during that span. He'll carry an overall 5.53 ERA into his next start, which is tentatively slated to be a home tilt against the Cubs.
Verdict
vs 2.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
3.2 K
L5 3.6 · L10 3.6 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season21 games
48%over
10 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–68%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 20/21 | ||
| 81% | 17/21 | ||
| 2.5Current | 48% | 10/21 | |
| 33% | 7/21 | ||
| 19% | 4/21 | ||
| 10% | 2/21 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away46%6/13Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days53%9/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Maikel Garcia out · Left Hand Strain+2.3 K when he sits
Without (9g)
4.2 K
78% over 2.5
With (12g)
1.9 K
25% over 2.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Luinder Avila has gone over 2.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 48% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.