Philadelphia Phillies

Luis Arraez Strikeouts (batter)

Stats updated: Sep 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Luis Arraez has gone over 0.5 SO in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: Venezuela
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksStrikeouts (batter) · season avg 0.2 SO · PrizePicks line

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Day-to-dayConfirm Luis Arraez's status before the game.

Injury:: Left Ankle Sprain

Arraez suffered the injury while trying to avoid being tagged while attempting to beat out a ground ball in the bottom of the sixth inning. The team outlined that he will be further evaluated, and his status moving forward is currently up in the air. More information on his status will likely be provided following the conclusion of Thursday's game.

Verdict

vs 0.5 SOStrikeouts (batter)

No readFireFactor 2/100· model 18% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it

Projection vs line28argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.1 SO(×0.97 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2020 games

20%over

4 over · 16 under

Medium confidence95% CI 8%–42%

Season145 games

19%over

27 over · 118 under

High confidence95% CI 13%–26%

Alternate lines — Strikeouts (batter) (SO)

SO over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SO line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	19%	27/145
	1%	1/145
	0%	0/145
	0%	0/145

Last 20 games — SO per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SO by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home21%14/67High

Away17%13/78High

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)19%22/113High

1 day16%4/25Medium

2 days0%0/2Low

3+ days0%0/3Low

With a teammate out

How this SO line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Felix Reyes out · Right Wrist Fracture

Without (134g)

0.2 SO

18% over 0.5

With (11g)

0.3 SO

27% over 0.5

Next matchup — vs TB

Sep 25, 2026

18thof 30 in SO allowed to hitters

TB pitching allows 8.2 SO per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 159 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Luis Arraez has gone over 0.5 SO 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 19% across the full season. TB has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 18th-most SO of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game SO have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies

neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 19%.