Loading…
Texas RangersLuis Curvelo
#57 · P · 6-1 · 170 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jul 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.7 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 K
L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 22% | 2/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kyle Higashioka out · Right Forearm Strain+0.8 K when he sits
Without (5g)
1.0 K
60% over 0.5
With (4g)
0.3 K
25% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 9 games, Luis Curvelo has gone over 0.5 K 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Globe Life Field · Texas Rangers
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.