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AthleticsLuis Severino
#40 · P · 6-2 · 218 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: May 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListLuis Severino isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 1, 2026
Severino has been on the shelf since May 30 due to a right shoulder strain and was shifted to the 60-day injured list June 21. Beginning to throw is a positive step, though he likely has several more boxes to check before embarking on a rehab assignment and ultimately rejoining the big-league rotation. The veteran right-hander posted a 2-6 record with a 4.16 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 65:31 K:BB across 62.2 innings (12 starts) before this lengthy absence.
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency22argues against it
Projection
5.2 K
L5 5.0 · L10 5.5 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 11/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 | ||
| 8% | 1/12 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Luis Severino has gone over 5.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Sutter Health Park · Athletics
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.