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Kansas City RoyalsMaikel Garcia
#11 · 3B · 6-1 · 180 lb · 65 games
Stats updated: Jun 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListMaikel Garcia isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hand Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 14, 2026
Garcia has been battling through a left hand muscle strain that caused him to go on the 10-day injured list in late June. He was cleared to embark on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Tuesday, but he was pulled from that assignment after feeling renewed pain in his left hand. Garcia's recovery timeline should become more clear once he is evaluated by a specialist next week.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
1.0 H(×0.96 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season65 games
28%over
18 over · 47 under
High confidence95% CI 18%–40%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 47/65 | ||
| 1.5Current | 28% | 18/65 | |
| 8% | 5/65 | ||
| 0% | 0/65 | ||
| 0% | 0/65 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%14/35Medium
Away13%4/30High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)25%13/52High
1 day38%3/8Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jonathan India out · Left Shoulder Surgery
Without (48g)
1.1 H
25% over 1.5
With (17g)
1.1 H
35% over 1.5
Next matchup — vs CHC
Aug 7, 2026
14thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CHC pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Maikel Garcia has gone over 1.5 H 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 28% across the full season. CHC has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 14th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 28%.