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Atlanta BravesMatthew Olson
#28 · 1B · 6-4 · 225 lb · 115 games
Stats updated: Aug 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsFrozen underFireFactor 81/100· model 77% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line77supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.1 H(×0.87 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season115 games
28%over
32 over · 83 under
High confidence95% CI 20%–37%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 83/115 | ||
| 1.5Current | 28% | 32/115 | |
| 4% | 5/115 | ||
| 0% | 0/115 | ||
| 0% | 0/115 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home32%19/59High
Away23%13/56High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)27%26/97High
1 day27%4/15Medium
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — @ NYY
Aug 7, 2026
28thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
NYY pitching allows 7.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Matthew Olson has gone over 1.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 28% across the full season. NYY has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 28th-most H of 30 teams (7.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Truist Park · Atlanta Braves
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.01)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 28%.