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Arizona DiamondbacksMichael Soroka
#34 · P · 6-5 · 250 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jun 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Canada
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.3 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListMichael Soroka isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Lower Body Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 10, 2026
Soroka is slated to throw 4-to-5 innings and/or 50-to-60 pitches in the outing. It will be his first time appearing in a game since he went down with a left glute strain in late June. The right-hander could be ready to rejoin the Diamondbacks' rotation after Tuesday's start, though the club might prefer Soroka to get stretched out further before reinstating him. He boasts a 3.07 ERA and 79:17 K:BB over 82 innings covering 15 starts for Arizona this season.
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Projection
4.5 K
L5 4.4 · L10 4.5 · med 5.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.8 · ceil 7.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 5.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 20% | 3/15 | ||
| 13% | 2/15 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Michael Soroka has gone over 5.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Chase Field · Arizona Diamondbacks
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.