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Cincinnati RedsMichael Toglia
#48 · 1B · 6-5 · 226 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Aug 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.4 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListMichael Toglia isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The move clears space on the 40-man roster for the addition of Carlos Jorge. Toglia is out for the season after undergoing recent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.2 H(×0.91 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day33%1/3Low
Next matchup — @ TOR
Sep 26, 2026
23rdof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TOR pitching allows 7.8 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 160 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Michael Toglia has gone over 0.5 H 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. TOR has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 23rd-most H of 30 teams (7.8 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati Reds
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.05, HR ×1.18)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.