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Pittsburgh PiratesMitch Keller
#23 · P · 6-3 · 213 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Aug 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.0 K · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Injured ListInjured ListMitch Keller isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Arm Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Keller's move to the IL comes just one day after he was lit up for seven earned runs on six hits and four walks in just two innings during Sunday's 10-2 loss to the Reds. The Pirates haven't provided an official recovery timeline for Keller, but his move to the 60-day IL makes him ineligible to be activated until Oct. 2, and the regular season concludes Sept. 27. The Pirates recalled Brandon Eisert from Triple-A Indianapolis to join the roster as a replacement for Keller, who ends his eighth MLB season with a 6-8 record, 5.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 89:42 K:BB over 115.2 innings.
Verdict
vs 4 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency42neutral
Projection
3.7 K
L5 3.2 · L10 3.8 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
25%over
1 over · 3 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%Last 1010 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under · 4 push
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Last 2020 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under · 6 push
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season22 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under · 7 push
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Situational splits
Over 4 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Oneil Cruz out · Left Hand Fracture-0.5 K when he sits
Without (9g)
3.8 K
33% over 4
With (13g)
4.2 K
56% over 4
Konnor Griffin out · Left Finger Strain
Without (10g)
4.1 K
43% over 4
With (12g)
4.0 K
50% over 4
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Mitch Keller has gone over 4 K 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 47% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
PNC Park · Pittsburgh Pirates
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.90)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 3.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 58.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 41.9%
Best Over
FanDuel-158
-5.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-15.8%
Our model puts the over at 42.3% vs the market's no-vig 58.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.