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Pittsburgh PiratesMitch Keller
#23 · P · 6-3 · 213 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Aug 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListMitch Keller isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Arm Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Keller's move to the IL comes just one day after he was lit up for seven earned runs on six hits and four walks in just two innings during Sunday's 10-2 loss to the Reds. The Pirates haven't provided an official recovery timeline for Keller, but his move to the 60-day IL makes him ineligible to be activated until Oct. 2, and the regular season concludes Sept. 27. The Pirates recalled Brandon Eisert from Triple-A Indianapolis to join the roster as a replacement for Keller, who ends his eighth MLB season with a 6-8 record, 5.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 89:42 K:BB over 115.2 innings.
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency42neutral
Projection
3.7 K
L5 3.2 · L10 3.8 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season22 games
64%over
14 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–80%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 22/22 | ||
| 95% | 21/22 | ||
| 91% | 20/22 | ||
| 3.5Current | 64% | 14/22 | |
| 32% | 7/22 | ||
| 18% | 4/22 | ||
| 5% | 1/22 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%8/12Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%14/21Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Esmerlyn Valdez out · Left Hamstring Strain+0.9 K when he sits
Without (14g)
4.4 K
71% over 3.5
With (8g)
3.5 K
50% over 3.5
Endy Rodríguez out · Left Hip Surgery+0.3 K when he sits
Without (13g)
4.2 K
62% over 3.5
With (9g)
3.9 K
67% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Mitch Keller has gone over 3.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 64% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
PNC Park · Pittsburgh Pirates
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.90)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.