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Chicago CubsMoisés Ballesteros
#13 · DH · 5-8 · 195 lb · 74 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.9 H(×1.21 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season74 games
54%over
40 over · 34 under
High confidence95% CI 43%–65%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 54% | 40/74 | |
| 18% | 13/74 | ||
| 1% | 1/74 | ||
| 0% | 0/74 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home46%17/37Medium
Away62%23/37Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)49%22/45Medium
1 day73%11/15Medium
2 days20%1/5Low
3+ days75%6/8Low
Next matchup — vs MIA
Sep 23, 2026
23rdof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIA pitching allows 7.9 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Moisés Ballesteros has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 23rd-most H of 30 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 64.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 35.4%
Best Over
BetMGM-235
-7.9% EV
Best Under
BetMGM+175
-2.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.2%
Our model puts the over at 60.4% vs the market's no-vig 64.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.