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Texas RangersNathan Eovaldi
#17 · P · 6-2 · 217 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 16 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 6.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
5.5 K
L5 5.4 · L10 6.3 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.4 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season22 games
55%over
12 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–73%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 17/22 | ||
| 77% | 17/22 | ||
| 68% | 15/22 | ||
| 6.5Current | 55% | 12/22 | |
| 32% | 7/22 | ||
| 18% | 4/22 | ||
| 5% | 1/22 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%6/9Low
Away46%6/13Low
Days since last game
3+ days52%11/21Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kyle Higashioka out · Right Forearm Strain-1.5 K when he sits
Without (4g)
5.0 K
25% over 6.5
With (18g)
6.5 K
61% over 6.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Nathan Eovaldi has gone over 6.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Globe Life Field · Texas Rangers
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (6.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.