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Pittsburgh PiratesOneil Cruz Runs
Stats updated: Jun 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Oneil Cruz has gone over 0.5 R in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Runs · season avg 0.7 R · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListOneil Cruz isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hand Fracture
- Est. return:
- Aug 7, 2026
Cruz is finally trending in the right direction as he continues rehabbing a fractured left hand. The Pirates anticipate the center fielder getting in some live at-bats later this week or early next week before heading out on a rehab assignment shortly thereafter. Cruz is eligible to return from the 60-day injured list Aug. 7, and he could be ready to go on or around that date if all goes well. Jake Mangum has been filling in as the Pirates' everyday center fielder since Cruz went down, but he will revert to fourth-outfielder duties once Cruz is back in the fold.
Verdict
vs 0.5 RRunsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.5 R(×0.87 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season61 games
49%over
30 over · 31 under
High confidence95% CI 37%–61%Alternate lines — Runs (R)
R over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 49% | 30/61 | |
| 20% | 12/61 | ||
| 5% | 3/61 | ||
| 0% | 0/61 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 R by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%14/32Medium
Away55%16/29Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)46%23/50Medium
1 day50%4/8Low
2 days100%2/2Low
With a teammate out
How this R line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Konnor Griffin out · Left Finger Strain+0.2 R when he sits
Without (14g)
0.9 R
57% over 0.5
With (47g)
0.7 R
47% over 0.5
Ryan O'Hearn out · Left Quadriceps Strain-0.3 R when he sits
Without (14g)
0.5 R
43% over 0.5
With (47g)
0.8 R
51% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ MIL
Aug 5, 2026
29thof 30 in R allowed to hitters
MIL pitching allows 3.8 R per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 112 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Oneil Cruz has gone over 0.5 R 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 49% across the full season. MIL has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 29th-most R of 30 teams (3.8 per game). His game-to-game R have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
PNC Park · Pittsburgh Pirates
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.90)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 49%.
More Oneil Cruz research
Oneil Cruz — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Cruz Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Cruz Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Cruz RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Cruz Stolen Bases→
Stolen Bases hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.