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Miami MarlinsOwen Caissie
#17 · RF · 6-4 · 190 lb · 96 games
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Canada
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListOwen Caissie isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Back Fracture
- Est. return:
- Sep 23, 2026
Caissie was initially diagnosed with hamstring tightness after being removed from Saturday's game against the Dodgers. However, further tests have revealed a lower-back injury for the 24-year-old outfielder, and he won't be eligible to return until the last week of the regular season. Xavier Edwards (thumb) was reinstated from the 10-day IL in a corresponding move, and Esteury Ruiz figures to see more playing time in the outfield for as long as Caissie is sidelined.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.8 H(×1.02 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season96 games
54%over
52 over · 44 under
High confidence95% CI 44%–64%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 54% | 52/96 | |
| 9% | 9/96 | ||
| 3% | 3/96 | ||
| 0% | 0/96 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%31/50Medium
Away46%21/46Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)54%32/59High
1 day58%15/26Medium
2 days43%3/7Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
Next matchup — @ CHC
Sep 22, 2026
14thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CHC pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Owen Caissie has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. CHC has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 14th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
loanDepot park · Miami Marlins
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.94, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.