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San Francisco GiantsRafael Devers
#16 · 1B · 6-0 · 235 lb · 148 games
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRafael Devers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Abdomen Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Devers was placed on the 60-day injured list Sunday due to a core muscle injury, something that has reportedly bothered the 29-year-old slugger for a number of years, though he could be back at full health for the start of training camp. Devers will finish the 2026 regular season with an .865 OPS with 37 home runs and 98 RBI across 633 plate appearances.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
1.0 H(×0.93 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
80%over
16 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 58%–92%Season148 games
66%over
97 over · 51 under
High confidence95% CI 58%–73%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 66% | 97/148 | |
| 28% | 41/148 | ||
| 3% | 5/148 | ||
| 1% | 1/148 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%47/73High
Away67%50/75High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)66%81/123High
1 day65%13/20Medium
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Willy Adames out · Left Elbow Sprain+0.4 H when he sits
Without (27g)
1.3 H
89% over 0.5
With (121g)
0.9 H
60% over 0.5
Matt Chapman out · Not Specified Abdomen Surgery+0.1 H when he sits
Without (64g)
1.0 H
66% over 0.5
With (84g)
0.9 H
65% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 22, 2026
8thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIN pitching allows 8.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rafael Devers has gone over 0.5 H 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 66% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 8th-most H of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 66%.