Loading…
Pittsburgh PiratesRafael Flores
#43 · C · 6-3 · 232 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.6 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.5 H(×1.03 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%4/4Low
Away0%0/4Low
Days since last game
1 day100%2/2Low
3+ days20%1/5Low
Next matchup — vs NYM
Aug 9, 2026
17thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
NYM pitching allows 8.1 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Rafael Flores has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYM has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 17th-most H of 30 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
PNC Park · Pittsburgh Pirates
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.90)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 46.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 53.7%
Best Over
DraftKings+113
-1.4% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-125
-3.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-1.2%
Our model puts the over at 45.1% vs the market's no-vig 46.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.