Philadelphia Phillies

Rafael Marchán Walks

Stats updated: Jul 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rafael Marchán has gone over 0.5 BB in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: Venezuela
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksWalks · season avg 0.1 BB · our line

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Injured ListRafael Marchán isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee Tendinitis
Est. return:: Aug 10, 2026

After leaving Wednesday's game early against the Dodgers with left knee pain, Philadelphia officially transferred Marchan to the IL on Friday. In 92 plate appearances, the 27-year-old slashed .102/.141/.170 with just two homers and six RBI this season. The Phillies selected Payton Henry's contract from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to take Marchan's spot on the active roster.

Verdict

vs 0.5 BBWalks

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 91% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line91supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.1 BB(×0.96 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2020 games

10%over

2 over · 18 under

Medium confidence95% CI 3%–30%

Season26 games

8%over

2 over · 24 under

High confidence95% CI 2%–24%

Alternate lines — Walks (BB)

BB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate BB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	8%	2/26
	0%	0/26
	0%	0/26
	0%	0/26

Last 20 games — BB per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 BB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%2/12Medium

Away0%0/14High

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/5Medium

1 day25%1/4Low

2 days0%0/3Low

3+ days8%1/13Medium

Next matchup — vs WSH

Aug 5, 2026

11thof 30 in BB allowed to hitters

WSH pitching allows 3.5 BB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 114 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Rafael Marchán has gone over 0.5 BB 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 8% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 11th-most BB of 30 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game BB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies

neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 8%.