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Atlanta BravesReynaldo López
#40 · P · 6-1 · 225 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Jul 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.8 K · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Injured ListInjured ListReynaldo López isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 14, 2026
Lopez was placed on the 15-day injured list earlier in the day after he was scratched from his expected start Saturday due to left knee inflammation. The right-hander appears to have avoided significant damage, and manager Walt Weiss expects Lopez to be activated from the IL when first eligible Aug. 15.
Verdict
vs 4 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
4.0 K
L5 5.2 · L10 3.4 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 5.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
20%over
4 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 8%–42%Season24 games
25%over
6 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 12%–45%Situational splits
Over 4 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home31%4/13Medium
Away18%2/11Medium
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days0%0/3Low
3+ days32%6/19Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Reynaldo López has gone over 4 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 25% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Truist Park · Atlanta Braves
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.01)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 4.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 44.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 55.1%
Best Over
DraftKings+115
-3.5% EV
Best Under
RT Sports-137
-4.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-12.0%
Our model puts the over at 32.9% vs the market's no-vig 44.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.