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Chicago CubsRiley Martin
#51 · P · 6-1 · 215 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Apr 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.3 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRiley Martin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Strain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Martin has been shelved since late April with a left flexor strain. He's had difficulty recovering from his throwing sessions, and if that continues, surgery will become an option. Even if Martin doesn't go under the knife, he won't be a candidate to pitch again in 2026.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Projection
1.4 K(×1.08 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 1.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
1 day60%3/5Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 8 games, Riley Martin has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.