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Atlanta BravesRobert Suarez
#75 · P · 6-2 · 210 lb · 31 games
Stats updated: Jun 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.8 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRobert Suarez isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 10, 2026
It appears to be the first time he's thrown since he landed on the 15-day injured list nearly one month ago with right elbow inflammation. Suarez will need to complete mound work and throwing to hitters before perhaps going out on a rehab assignment. A clearer picture regarding a timeline for the setup man should be available as he continues his throwing progression.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)80supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.6 K
L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season31 games
61%over
19 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 44%–76%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 61% | 19/31 | |
| 19% | 6/31 | ||
| 3% | 1/31 | ||
| 0% | 0/31 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%9/14Medium
Away59%10/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)40%2/5Low
1 day73%8/11Low
2 days67%4/6Low
3+ days50%4/8Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Robert Suarez has gone over 0.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 61% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Truist Park · Atlanta Braves
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.01)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 61%.