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Baltimore OriolesRyan Helsley
#21 · P · 6-2 · 235 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jun 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.2 KSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRyan Helsley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Helsley was limited to only 15.1 innings in 2026 because of elbow trouble, making his decision to pick up his player option and remain in Baltimore a fairly easy one. The reliever pitched in a rehab game in September, so he should be healthy for spring training, barring any setbacks. Helsley figures to be in the mix to close games for the Orioles in 2027, though Felix Bautista and/or Rico Garcia are also options for the ninth inning.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.2 K
L5 1.2 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.2 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 13/17 | ||
| 1.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 6% | 1/17 | ||
| 0% | 0/17 | ||
| 0% | 0/17 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day33%2/6Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days40%2/5Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jackson Holliday out · Left Wrist Surgery
Without (12g)
1.3 K
42% over 1.5
With (5g)
1.2 K
40% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Ryan Helsley has gone over 1.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 41% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.