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Arizona DiamondbacksRyne Nelson
#19 · P · 6-3 · 210 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jun 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRyne Nelson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 1, 2026
Manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday that Nelson has shown a lot of improvement since landing on the injured list June 19 with a strained right elbow. The team still believes that the right-hander will be able to pitch again for the big club this season, though it's still unclear whether he'll do so as a starter or a reliever. A better idea of his return timeline and expected role should emerge as he clears hurdles in his throwing program.
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
3.9 K
L5 3.2 · L10 4.2 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 93% | 14/15 | ||
| 87% | 13/15 | ||
| 3.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 20% | 3/15 | ||
| 20% | 3/15 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jordan Lawlar out · Right Hamstring Strain+0.2 K when he sits
Without (12g)
4.2 K
50% over 3.5
With (3g)
4.0 K
67% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Ryne Nelson has gone over 3.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Chase Field · Arizona Diamondbacks
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.