San Diego Padres

Samad Taylor Runs

Stats updated: Jul 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Samad Taylor has gone over 0.5 R in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRuns · season avg 0.6 R · our line

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Injured ListSamad Taylor isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Oblique Strain
Est. return:: Aug 10, 2026

Taylor has been sidelined since early July due to a right oblique strain. His timeline for a return remains unclear, though he'll likely need a minor-league rehab assignment before being activated due to the length of his absence from game action. Taylor had been providing a spark for San Diego prior to getting hurt, slashing .330/.410/.398 with one home run, 11 RBI, 14 runs and six stolen bases over 26 contests.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RRuns

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)74supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.4 R(×1.01 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2020 games

40%over

8 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%

Season22 games

45%over

10 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 27%–65%

Alternate lines — Runs (R)

R over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate R line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	45%	10/22
	14%	3/22
	0%	0/22
	0%	0/22

Last 20 games — R per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 R by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home27%3/11Low

Away64%7/11Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)40%6/15Medium

1 day60%3/5Low

3+ days0%0/1Low

With a teammate out

How this R line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Miguel Andujar out · Right Wrist Fracture+0.6 R when he sits

Without (10g)

0.9 R

70% over 0.5

With (12g)

0.3 R

25% over 0.5

Next matchup — @ AZ

Aug 5, 2026

13thof 30 in R allowed to hitters

AZ pitching allows 4.5 R per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 113 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Samad Taylor has gone over 0.5 R 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 45% across the full season. AZ has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 13th-most R of 30 teams (4.5 per game). His game-to-game R have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Petco Park · San Diego Padres

pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.