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Baltimore OriolesSamuel Basallo
#29 · C · 6-4 · 250 lb · 71 games
Stats updated: Jul 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListSamuel Basallo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 7, 2026
Basallo has been shut down for more than a week as he allows his right shoulder inflammation to subside, and he's nearly ready to ramp things back up again. There is currently no timeline for the return of Basallo, and he could require a rehab assignment if his absence drags on much longer.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)87supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.7 H(×1.12 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season71 games
63%over
45 over · 26 under
High confidence95% CI 52%–74%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 63% | 45/71 | |
| 23% | 16/71 | ||
| 3% | 2/71 | ||
| 1% | 1/71 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home68%25/37Medium
Away59%20/34Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)74%28/38Medium
1 day52%12/23Medium
2 days57%4/7Low
3+ days0%0/2Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Adley Rutschman out · Left Wrist Inflammation
Without (24g)
0.9 H
63% over 0.5
With (47g)
0.9 H
64% over 0.5
Blaze Alexander out · Left Hand Fracture
Without (24g)
0.9 H
58% over 0.5
With (47g)
0.9 H
66% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ TEX
Aug 7, 2026
10thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TEX pitching allows 8.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Samuel Basallo has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 63% across the full season. TEX has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 10th-most H of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.