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Tampa Bay RaysShane McClanahan
#18 · P · 6-3 · 210 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: Jul 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.5 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListShane McClanahan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Back Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Aug 15, 2026
McClanahan hit the leadoff man with a pitch to lead off the top of the fourth inning and then issued a walk to the second batter he saw. At that point, he was visited by the trainer and walked off the field. The Rays had a reliever warming at the start of the inning even though the lefty had thrown three scoreless frames, indicating they knew McClanahan's back had been bothering him. McClanahan was charged with one run on two walks and a strikeout over three-plus innings. The club should have more on the hurler's status after the contest.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency49neutral
Projection
3.9 K
L5 3.6 · L10 4.1 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season20 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 20/20 | ||
| 100% | 20/20 | ||
| 70% | 14/20 | ||
| 4.5Current | 45% | 9/20 | |
| 25% | 5/20 | ||
| 15% | 3/20 | ||
| 0% | 0/20 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away40%4/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%9/19Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jake Fraley out · Not Specified Groin Surgery-0.9 K when he sits
Without (16g)
4.4 K
38% over 4.5
With (4g)
5.3 K
75% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Shane McClanahan has gone over 4.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 45% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Steinbrenner Field · Tampa Bay Rays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.04)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 5.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.8%
Best Over
FanDuel+122
+9.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-8.4%
Our model puts the over at 40.8% vs the market's no-vig 49.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.