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Tampa Bay RaysShane McClanahan
#18 · P · 6-3 · 210 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Sep 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListShane McClanahan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Forearm Soreness
- Est. return:
- Oct 1, 2026
McClanahan played catch Friday and manager Kevin Cash described it as a "good" session for the southpaw. McClanahan has been sidelined since Sept. 4 while nursing left forearm tightness, and he will now shift his sights on potentially being available for Tampa Bay during the postseason.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency49neutral
Projection
3.9 K
L5 3.6 · L10 3.7 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season24 games
42%over
10 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 24%–61%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 24/24 | ||
| 100% | 24/24 | ||
| 67% | 16/24 | ||
| 4.5Current | 42% | 10/24 | |
| 21% | 5/24 | ||
| 13% | 3/24 | ||
| 0% | 0/24 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%5/12Low
Away42%5/12Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%10/23Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Shane McClanahan has gone over 4.5 K 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 42% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Steinbrenner Field · Tampa Bay Rays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.04)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.