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Boston Red SoxSonny Gray
#54 · P · 5-10 · 190 lb · 21 games
Stats updated: Aug 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 7/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency11argues against it
Projection
5.6 K
L5 4.8 · L10 6.2 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season21 games
52%over
11 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–72%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 20/21 | ||
| 81% | 17/21 | ||
| 62% | 13/21 | ||
| 4.5Current | 52% | 11/21 | |
| 38% | 8/21 | ||
| 33% | 7/21 | ||
| 19% | 4/21 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home45%5/11Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%10/20Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Roman Anthony out · Right Finger Sprain+3.2 K when he sits
Without (16g)
5.8 K
63% over 4.5
With (5g)
2.6 K
20% over 4.5
Trevor Story out · Not Specified Abdomen Surgery+3.1 K when he sits
Without (14g)
6.1 K
64% over 4.5
With (7g)
3.0 K
29% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Sonny Gray has gone over 4.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 52% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.